Link between higher temperatures and more intense storms
Climate change could make heavy rainstorms even more frequent than previously predicted, scientists said today.
Researchers at Reading and Miami universities have demonstrated a link between warmer temperatures and more intense rainstorms - confirming predictions that global warming could cause more incidents of intense rainfall.
But the scientists, writing in the journal Science, also said the increase in the heaviest rainfall events observed in their study was greater than that seen in climate modelling.
The results suggest rising global temperatures could cause more intense rainstorms than expected, and that the impact of climate change on rainfall is being underestimated.
The researchers used naturally-occurring changes in surface temperature and moisture in the air associated with the El Nino weather phenomenon to see what happened to tropical rainfall patterns.
The study, which used satellite observations and climate models, showed heavy rain events increased during warm periods and decreased during cold periods.
But the satellite observations of what was actually happening showed a greater increase in the heaviest rainstorms than predicted by the models.
Dr Richard Allan, of Reading University, said: "Comparing observations with results from computer models improves our understanding of how rainfall responds to a warming world.
"This research is based on 20 years of satellite observations and we found a distinct link between rainfall extremes and temperature."
He went on: "One of the most serious challenges that humanity will face in response to climate change is adapting to changes in extreme weather events.
"There is a major concern that heavy rainstorms will become more common and more intense in a warmer climate.
"Floods can completely devastate areas and people's livelihoods and so this knowledge could have massive implications on how we plan for our changing climate in the future."
Dr Brian Soden, at the University of Miami's Rosentiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, said: "A surprising result is that the models appear to underestimate the increase in intensity of the heaviest rainfall events to warming.
"This suggests that model projections of future changes in rainfall extremes due to human-caused global warming may also be underestimated."
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